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Sunday, November 9, 2008


blogger Bill in Portland Maine tries out for NBC...

"Thanks, Brian. This is gonna be quite a day. Super Tuesday. The margins are tight, the knives are out and the Super Tuesday Millions of dollars have been spent, thousands of doors have been kicked in to get at those hard-to-reach 'refuses to answer the doorbell but we know they're home' voters. And it all comes down to passion, turnout, the weather, and the strength of the daytime TV lineup. If Drew Carey is having a good day on The Price is Right, or if there are multiple cliffhangers on the soaps, or if Judge Judy is trying a particularly nasty case, it could keep voters home. But if the Big Wheel lands on nothing higher than 30 cents today and the lead guest on Ellen is Carrot Top, this could be a record turnout.

And just look at the contenders. Obama the black candidate versus Hillary the woman candidate. Biologically speaking, very exciting. Historic. Mesmerizing. And here's my schematic: if Alabama breaks for Obama along with Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, North Dakota and California, but Hillary sweeps Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware and Georgia, and if they split Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts and Minnesota, giving voters in Missouri, New Jersey and New York the latitude they need to play a real part in this race, and turnout in New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and American Samoa doesn't reach the unprecedented highs we've seen in previous contests, then Democrats Abroad could decide this thing.

But the key here is voters. Voters are key. Voters may well be the ones to determine the final percentages in these Super Tuesday matchups. And if the outcome is different than the scenario I just laid out---which I concocted by throwing darts at a map while blindfolded---then we could have a real contest here. If North Dakota, Connecticut and New Mexico band together into a dealmaker coalition, everything changes. If California, New York and Illinois swing even one percent the other way, it's a whole new ballgame, effectively striking out the A's---Arkansas, Alaska, Arizona and American Samoa---in what amounts to a no-hitter, and the Big Three become the MVP of this contest. If that doesn't pan out, we move to hockey metaphors: a hat trick with an assist from an out-of-control Zamboni that the founding fathers, now cold as ice, could never have envisioned. Either way, tonight is the grand Carnegie Hall performance, the final lunge to the top of Mount Everest, a Nobel prize, an Oscar and a Guggenheim Foundation grant all rolled into one. It's gonna be exciting, Brian. Super Tuesday excitement. Blue candidate versus blue candidate in blue states and red states. Heady stuff! Back to you, Brian..."

ps. Abel's in danger of being banned from our little discussion group. THIN ICE!

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