[This was written as a text response to family members, but it got away from me! 😅😆. Figured I'd just post here and share a link...]
In 2020 California voted on Super Tuesday, and going in it looked like Bernie Sanders was gonna sew things up... Bernie has some admirable qualities but I had serious concerns he would lose to Trump. Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out and endorsed Biden and I decided to vote for Biden myself in that primary, which of course turned the whole race around and set him up to be the nominee.
Since then he's made me very proud of that vote. It's unbelievable how much he's accomplished with such thin margins in Congress. I actually wanted him to run for reelection because I thought he was doing a great job and incumbency is a huge advantage that I didn't want to leave on the table. Sure, he looked old, but he seemed fine to me. I believed in him.
It became clear though that I was an outlier... most voters viewed Biden as too old to do the job, out of it, probably not really even in charge, possibly senile, etc etc. I thought that was wildly off base and must be the product of a social media echo chamber or something. That's why even though he's been behind Trump in the polls the whole campaign I was bullish on his prospects... and why I was very much looking forward to the debate: once people saw the REAL Joe Biden, rather than this distorted caricature, it would change the dynamics of the race.
Turns out I was the one in need of a reality check. Suddenly it became very clear why his campaign has kept him from doing unscripted events: They were avoiding moments like that debate.
The irony is it really hasn't changed the dynamics of the race, precisely because most voters already had no confidence in Biden before the debate. Many people REALLY don't like Trump and will vote for any alternative. So the floor hasn't dropped from under us, but the ceiling may have dropped very close to the floor, as people's negative perceptions of Biden have essentially been confirmed. And now that everyone's seen it with their own eyes it's not going to be possible to convince them otherwise. The only argument is "but Trump is so much worse," which of course is absolutely true!... but not a great place to be.
While it's true there's been a media frenzy around this, I don't think this is ultimately a media generated story... The media is actually now catching up to voters' existing perceptions, not the other way around. The story is not going away as long as Biden is the nominee. And, frankly, I think that's fair. Yes, we know Trump's sinister threat to democracy bears no comparison to Biden's age... But I think if Trump weren't in the race Biden's age/condition would be considered disqualifying. This isn't "Hillary's emails," this is a valid concern.
As a side note, I of course completely agree with Lucia that the press should focus more on how terrible Trump is... but I also see Jon Stewart's point that Trump has been insane the whole time ("He STARTED with 'grab em by the p***y'!!"). At times they've held Trump to scrutiny, but you can't keep the outrage at 10 indefinitely. Sadly, he becomes normalized. These revelations about Biden, though, are new and noteworthy, so they're getting all the attention now. It's not fair, but it's not surprising either.
Biden had a good performance yesterday, two full weeks after his terrible debate showing. The worst descriptions of Biden ("senile", etc) are obviously unfair... but clearly it is fair to say he has "good days" and "bad days." In the last two weeks we've seen one of each. If his campaign could reliably put him out there to gain people's confidence I think they would. I think they don't because they're worried it will just make things worse.
Instead it feels like they're trying to run out the clock before the convention. Once he's officially nominated there's no going back. We are tied to the mast at that point, for better or worse, haha. We'll have to hold our breath every time he has an unscripted event... and realistically we know there will be more "bad days" between now and election day (to say nothing of the next 4 years).
I'll bring it back to that 2020 Super Tuesday: it was a moment where party leaders saw things potentially going awry but made hard but necessary decisions to ensure we prevailed. We took control of our destiny. Now is a similarly crucial moment. I have been an enthusiastic supporter of Biden, and I'm proud of his many accomplishments, but I hope he will ultimately do what I believe is the right thing, put the country first, and step aside.
Even if you don't think it's fair, it seems apparent he has lost the confidence of most Dem voters (outside Rocky Dell Rd 😜), Dem elected officials, and Dem stakeholders. His odds already looked long before the debate, and now they are undeniably worse. It's hard to see a path to victory. It's worth considering that both Trump and Pelosi, two people who don't agree on much, both seem to think Biden will lose and that another candidate would do better.
Ultimately I think it's a choice between a static, relatively predictable race in which we COULD eke out a win, but will probably lose (I'd give us a 1 in 3 chance), OR a dynamic, unpredictable, high risk/reward race, with a lot of potential pitfalls (I can imagine several specific ones), but also a lot of upside. (I'd give us better than 50/50 odds, with the possibility of doing very well).
I know this is all gut-wrenching and difficult, but now is the time for our party to hash this out and get it right. I know those that argue for sticking with Biden do so in good faith, because they think it's the best path forward. Those arguments should absolutely be considered as well. We've got a few weeks before the nomination becomes official. After that there's no changing course. I hope more Dems will come forward and be frank about what needs to happen to defeat Trump in the upcoming election. Because that is all I care about. If we win I will party in the streets no matter who got us there. I don't even want to think about if we lose.
