Words about our current predicament...

[This was written as a text response to family members, but it got away from me! 😅😆. Figured I'd just post here and share a link...]

In 2020 California voted on Super Tuesday, and going in it looked like Bernie Sanders was gonna sew things up... Bernie has some admirable qualities but I had serious concerns he would lose to Trump. Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out and endorsed Biden and I decided to vote for Biden myself in that primary, which of course turned the whole race around and set him up to be the nominee. 

Since then he's made me very proud of that vote. It's unbelievable how much he's accomplished with such thin margins in Congress. I actually wanted him to run for reelection because I thought he was doing a great job and incumbency is a huge advantage that I didn't want to leave on the table. Sure, he looked old, but he seemed fine to me. I believed in him.

It became clear though that I was an outlier... most voters viewed Biden as too old to do the job, out of it, probably not really even in charge, possibly senile, etc etc. I thought that was wildly off base and must be the product of a social media echo chamber or something. That's why even though he's been behind Trump in the polls the whole campaign I was bullish on his prospects... and why I was very much looking forward to the debate: once people saw the REAL Joe Biden, rather than this distorted caricature, it would change the dynamics of the race. 

Turns out I was the one in need of a reality check. Suddenly it became very clear why his campaign has kept him from doing unscripted events: They were avoiding moments like that debate. 

The irony is it really hasn't changed the dynamics of the race, precisely because most voters already had no confidence in Biden before the debate. Many people REALLY don't like Trump and will vote for any alternative. So the floor hasn't dropped from under us, but the ceiling may have dropped very close to the floor, as people's negative perceptions of Biden have essentially been confirmed. And now that everyone's seen it with their own eyes it's not going to be possible to convince them otherwise. The only argument is "but Trump is so much worse," which of course is absolutely true!... but not a great place to be.

While it's true there's been a media frenzy around this, I don't think this is ultimately a media generated story... The media is actually now catching up to voters' existing perceptions, not the other way around. The story is not going away as long as Biden is the nominee.  And, frankly, I think that's fair. Yes, we know Trump's sinister threat to democracy bears no comparison to Biden's age... But I think if Trump weren't in the race Biden's age/condition would be considered disqualifying. This isn't "Hillary's emails," this is a valid concern.

As a side note, I of course completely agree with Lucia that the press should focus more on how terrible Trump is... but I also see Jon Stewart's point that Trump has been insane the whole time ("He STARTED with 'grab em by the p***y'!!"). At times they've held Trump to scrutiny, but you can't keep the outrage at 10 indefinitely. Sadly, he becomes normalized. These revelations about Biden, though, are new and noteworthy, so they're getting all the attention now. It's not fair, but it's not surprising either.

Biden had a good performance yesterday, two full weeks after his terrible debate showing. The worst descriptions of Biden ("senile", etc) are obviously unfair...  but clearly it is fair to say he has "good days" and "bad days." In the last two weeks we've seen one of each. If his campaign could reliably put him out there to gain people's confidence I think they would. I think they don't because they're worried it will just make things worse. 

Instead it feels like they're trying to run out the clock before the convention. Once he's officially nominated there's no going back. We are tied to the mast at that point, for better or worse, haha. We'll have to hold our breath every time he has an unscripted event... and realistically we know there will be more "bad days" between now and election day (to say nothing of the next 4 years).

I'll bring it back to that 2020 Super Tuesday: it was a moment where party leaders saw things potentially going awry but made hard but necessary decisions to ensure we prevailed. We took control of our destiny. Now is a similarly crucial moment. I have been an enthusiastic supporter of Biden, and I'm proud of his many accomplishments, but I hope he will ultimately do what I believe is the right thing, put the country first, and step aside. 

Even if you don't think it's fair, it seems apparent he has lost the confidence of most Dem voters (outside Rocky Dell Rd 😜), Dem elected officials, and Dem stakeholders. His odds already looked long before the debate, and now they are undeniably worse. It's hard to see a path to victory. It's worth considering that both Trump and Pelosi, two people who don't agree on much, both seem to think Biden will lose and that another candidate would do better.

Ultimately I think it's a choice between a static, relatively predictable race in which we COULD eke out a win, but will probably lose (I'd give us a 1 in 3 chance), OR a dynamic, unpredictable, high risk/reward race, with a lot of potential pitfalls (I can imagine several specific ones), but also a lot of upside. (I'd give us better than 50/50 odds, with the possibility of doing very well). 

I know this is all gut-wrenching and difficult, but now is the time for our party to hash this out and get it right. I know those that argue for sticking with Biden do so in good faith, because they think it's the best path forward. Those arguments should absolutely be considered as well. We've got a few weeks before the nomination becomes official. After that there's no changing course. I hope more Dems will come forward and be frank about what needs to happen to defeat Trump in the upcoming election. Because that is all I care about. If we win I will party in the streets no matter who got us there. I don't even want to think about if we lose.

Meme the vote

I guess I'm in the mood for philosophizing these days... I wanted to share some of my thoughts on voting:

I got a friend of mine to vote for the first time this election. He said he never voted before because he felt like it didn't matter. After all, what were the odds any election would be decided by his own single vote. There's a logic to this, but it only goes so far...

In all aspects of life we have to act the way we hope others would act if there's going to be any chance for "society" to work. If you go to the beach how big a deal would it be to leave a piece of litter behind? One piece of trash on a large beach might not even be noticed. But obviously if everyone acted that way we'd have some pretty crummy beaches! Likewise with voting... You have to do your part.

I'll take it a step further... perhaps more consequential than the act of voting itself is subscribing to and spreading the idea that "voting is important" (or its opposite). After all, it's true that one vote will almost never sway an election. But the idea that "voting doesn't matter" can spread and very quickly add up and absolutely sway elections. 

Today the word "meme" has come to refer to goofy pictures with captions, but originally it referred more generally to ideas that spread through society. A sort of pre-internet concept of "going viral," although it could be an implicit idea that people don't even think about consciously. The spread of attitudes about politics in general and voting specifically through communities is a crucial aspect of how politics end up affecting the real world. Communities that buy into the importance of voting for example will be better represented in election tallies, which will then of course prompt politicians to take their interests more seriously as they vie for their future votes. Communities that don't will find politicians taking their interests less seriously, thereby further reinforcing their lack of faith in the political process.

For this reason I'd argue maybe even more important than the act of voting is talking about voting (in person or online). That may involve talking directly about the importance of voting, or it may be delivering that idea implicitly as you talk about weighing your options, judging the candidates, etc. Underneath the discussion lies the assumption that "voting matters," even without saying so directly. When others also internalize this assumption they may talk about it to people they know, further spreading the idea, and so on. 

Nowadays we're all quite steeped in the literal consequences of "going viral" in terms of the spread of Covid. We know that if we pass along the virus (even if we don't get sick ourselves) we endanger far more than the people we directly infect. Say I get Covid, don't even notice I have it, pass it to two friends, who also don't realize they have it, who each pass it to two more people, some of whom get sick but recover but not before they all each pass it to two more people... and so on, infecting exponentially more people. Even if only a small percentage of those people suffer greatly or die it could still add up to a significant number. And it could have all been prevented had I just stayed home and not passed it along to my friend.

Well, ideas can spread in a similar fashion. Obviously either you have Covid or you don't, while beliefs and attitudes are more complicated and nuanced. Nevertheless, I think our power lies to a greater degree in how we talk and spread ideas about voting than in the actual act of voting itself. 

Which brings me to my final point, which is it's not just voting... The Georgia run-offs are coming up at the beginning of 2021, and will determine which party controls the Senate and therefore to what extent Washington will be paralyzed by gridlock. It's going to be an uphill climb for sure. The odds seem stacked against us. Then again Trump keeps saying the voting machines in the state are rigged, potentially discouraging his side from voting. A double victory there seems unlikely but is certainly not impossible. And it would make a huge, huge difference, so it's worth making every effort. 

For my part I plan on writing more letters through Vote Forward encouraging people to vote. I bring this up not so you'll say "Gee, Lee sure is a good guy!" ...If you do think that then that's a bonus, but you're just as likely perhaps to think I'm tooting my own horn, which may actually make you think less of me, who knows? I'm judging it a wash on that score :). 

No, the real reason I feel compelled to bring it up is that the effects of my letter writing are only marginally more consequential than my single vote. For the general election I wrote/mailed 100 letters to unreliable Democratic voters in swing states. Vote Forward did their own research (with control groups and everything) and determined that people who received one of their letters were 3.9% more likely to vote than people who didn't.  That means my 100 letters (which required no small amount of effort) likely resulted in four extra votes. Four. Even four votes are unlikely to change any elections. 

BUT, if other people like me get the idea writing these letters makes a difference, act on that, and further spread that notion... now we can get somewhere. So, the point is, writing my letters and being modest and not telling anyone I'm doing it is really not going to make much difference and borders on being a waste of time. They say "talk is cheap," but in this case talking about the work (or posting about it online, etc.) is at least as important as actually doing it. It's how you can encourage the idea of pitching in to help to "go viral," which is what will actually make a difference. It's how you build a movement.

That's why we probably all need to try to get more comfortable talking about this stuff on social media and IRL. Ok, some of us are very comfortable with it, perhaps to the point of being a little annoying haha, but I think the rest of us should actually try to be more like those people not less (ideally without being annoying). So far social media seems to be doing a better job of spreading bad ideas than good ones. But we all play a role in terms of how we choose to participate.

Bottom line: absolutely, VOTE! It's important. But how we participate the broader conversation with our friends/family/acquaintances probably matters more.

Election processing (thoughts on optimism)

First off, congrats to America for defeating the bad guy! It ain't nuthin'.

I wanted to recap my side of an online conversation I had with my uncle after the election cuz I think it could make interesting thought-food... 

Basically he was pretty down because he was expecting a broad repudiation of Trump and the Republican party in general and enough Dems elected across the board to begin making headway on the many issues that confront us. Instead while we managed to pull out a win for President, results down-ballot were disappointing, pointing towards gridlock and more close elections going forward even against the most egregiously unfit opponents. This left my uncle bummed even as others were celebrating. And, yeah, he's got a point! 

But I also agreed with Josh Marshall at TPM that there are good and important reasons to celebrate this victory. For one thing, it's truly an important accomplishment! Losing would have been catastrophic, and we prevented that catastrophe. Furthermore:

It is also far more than okay to embrace and exult in this moment of victory. It is not just acceptable. There is a moral imperative to do so. As much as policies or particular ideas political movements and coalitions are communities, ones that suffer reverses and victories as communities, either well or poorly. How they do so isn’t just a matter of individual experience. These choices can sustain and grow political power, something political movements are always in the midst of gaining or dissipating. It is important to relish the fruits of the common exertions of a political coalition you are part of. It doesn’t just feel good. It sustains and builds power, the experience and proof that hard work and the seemingly endless exertions can have a real and tangible impact on the world we live in. No one will celebrate your victories for you. You can’t be powerful if you don’t act powerful.

JM then goes on to quote what he wrote in the immediate aftermath of Trump's victory four years ago:

Optimism isn’t principally an analysis of present reality. It’s an ethic. It is not based on denial or rosy thinking. It is a moral posture toward the world we find ourselves in. If everything seems great, there’s no need for optimism.

He argues that celebration is "another of these moral postures to the world we find ourselves in, an expression of commitment to our dignity and our values." This idea of acting with optimism of course equally applies to how we should approach the likely stalemated government we will face (absent upset victories in Georgia, a subject I'll return to in my next post).

Logic, reason and experience tell us McConnell will do everything in his power to sabotage the government and make our country's problems as bad as possible (while hiding behind disingenuous arguments) in order to increase Republicans chances of winning in 2022 and 2024. Likewise, bigger picture and in the slightly longer run, our failing to reign in environmental destruction will likely result in a spiral of disaster. No one needs to look far for reasons for pessimism if that's what you're after! 

But I like JM's argument for optimism, not because of the prognosis but in spite of it.  It's not about making predictions for the future, it's about deciding how we're going to live our lives. 

If you'll indulge me, I shared this (by now slightly dusty) Wilco song with my uncle and later offered my interpretation, which ties in with this topic:

It's a war on war
It's a war on war
It's a war on war
There's a war on
You're gonna lose
You have to lose
You have to learn how to die
If you want to want to be alive

A "war on war" is a losing proposition. For one thing it's an oxymoron, how can you wage war on waging war? But more to the point, there will always be war, it's inevitable. You might as well try to prevent the sun from setting or rising. You need to accept you're going to lose. Likewise, in life we are all going to ultimately "lose" when we die... learning "how to die" is really learning how to live with an acceptance of death, a necessity if we "want to want to be alive." "Want to want" nicely compliments the title, both in how the words sound and in the apparent logical contradiction... either you want something or not, right? But apparently in this case "you" may not want to be alive, given the state of things, but if you "want to want" to be alive first you need to accept loss and death and find a way to live and fight for your values in spite of it all. 

I feel like that jibes with JM's message about optimism.  In the case of our present politics it's not so much about “war” specifically as dishonesty/corruption/bigotry/cruelty/division/etc/etc... and it's a war we’re gonna lose! There will always be these things... But we can beat them back for a while, even making a real difference in people's lives. Along the way there will be victories and losses. We should keep our heads up, fight the good fight, accept what we can’t control, live our values, and take joy where we can find it. (Say, in Trump's upcoming legal troubles 😆) 

Along somewhat similar lines, Ernest Hemingway greatly romanticized bullfighting (personally not my thing, but whatever). For him the bull represents death... There will always be another bull... eventually we all must succumb to what the bull represents. But the bullfighter stands against death and for at least one moment defeats it with grace, poise and courage. To Hemingway this represents life's ultimate aspiration: To live well in spite of death.

In terms of politics an ethic of optimism allows us to operate with the belief that a better world is possible if we work to make it so. And that if we step up and do our part others will step up and do theirs. Not because evidence necessarily supports this, but because that's how we choose to live. Ironically I think living this way makes it more likely that we will experience more positive outcomes along the way. But, more importantly, it's a just a good way to live your life.

Feeling: Frustrated 😣

 I posted this to Facebook today:

Politics on FB (or anywhere else!) can be a drag, but I'm feeling compelled...

If Republicans jam through another SC justice after blocking Garland in 2016 it will be a true crossing of the Rubicon. There will be no going back. Nerves are still raw from Garland... this is an opportunity to show good faith and at least apply that newly invented rule evenly. To bring the temperature down. Instead it appears Republicans are going to pour gasoline on the fire, destroying the legitimacy of the SC in the process. We will never stop fighting about this. 

But it appears that's where we're headed. I'm probably preaching to the choir but please remember it's not enough just to vote this year. Most directly, try to identify any unreliable voters you know and make sure they vote this year (a personal appeal is going to matter so much more than any advertising could). I signed up to write letters to swing state voters and donated to winning back state legislatures to fight unfair gerrymandering. (Links in the comments.) I'm sure there are many other ways you can get involved, but please be sure you are doing SOMETHING (beyond just voting).

This isn't just about Trump. It's about basic human decency. That's on the ballot, up and down the ballot. Nobody else is going to fix this for us. "We are the one we've been waiting for." (blah, blah...) I promise to do my part and I'm counting on you good people to do yours. It's the only way we're gonna get through this. 

Love to you all ️

Links:

Vote Forward

Forward Majority

    - Article by FM director explaining how they allocate money: "Want your campaign funding to be effective? Diversify."

Juneteenth

Juneteenth was actually yesterday... I posted the following on Facebook and thought I'd post it here too (since I went to the trouble of writing it!)



Happy Juneteenth! I'd heard of this holiday before, but I'd never given it much thought tbh. This year's different, for obvious reasons. Current events seem to have inspired many (and not just the usual suspects) to try to challenge themselves to learn more about these issues, to hopefully be part of the solution... which offers some hope! In that spirit I thought I'd share a few things that I've found to be interesting/challenging/thought-provoking...


- "Between the World and Me," Ta-Nehisi Coates

This book got a lot of attention when it came out a few years ago... and, yeah, it's really, really good... and highly relevant to the conversation today. Coates presents it as a letter to his teenage son. It's not that long, but there's a lot there. It's unflinching, but also poetic. It's the kind of book when you finish you pause for a moment, and then go back to the beginning and start again.

- "I Am Not Your Negro," documentary about James Baldwin

Listening to interviews with Coates I learned that Baldwin was an important inspiration for his book. ("The point of aiming for Baldwin is not to get to Baldwin. It's to stretch yourself.") That led me to this documentary, which you can watch for a dollar on YouTube. I didn't really know anything about Baldwin before tbh, but he's a fascinating character. The film's a little rough around the edges... honestly I thought it felt a little like a student film at times... but the material is so powerful that some technical imperfections hardly matter. It came out in the wake of Trayvon Martin, Eric Garner, Charleston, Ferguson (etc., etc.), and connects those events to Baldwin's ideas.

I would recommend watching the documentary before reading Coates' book. The connection is hard to miss. Coates even uses some of Baldwin's same specific language. (The word "dreamer" will forever have a different connotation for me now). Both writers are clearly empathetic people but also cold-eyed and unsentimental in their assessments of this country. They certainly widened my own perspective.

- "8:46," Dave Chapelle stand-up

Chappelle's latest is not comedy. Like, literally, there are no jokes. It's just Dave saying what he feels. It's not exactly "fun," but definitely worthwhile.

- "Do the Right Thing," Spike Lee

Ok, I'm sure most of you have already seen this, but wow, made 31 years ago (1989!) and it couldn't be more relevant today. I remember when I first saw it (in high school) liking it but also being a little confused... It's a morality play (it's right there in the title) in which the "bad" guys seem mostly ok and the "good" guys are hardly saints. Mookie's boss Sal eventually betrays his latent racism, but he also treats Mookie like a son. (People are complicated!) Was destroying Sal's family business in response to police brutality "doing the right thing?"

I think what the movie is getting at is it's not about good guys and bad guys, and that sometimes there is no "right thing" to be done. When the larger structures of society are built in fundamentally unfair ways it creates impossible situations. It's still an important insight in 2020. The problems we're facing are so much deeper than punishing a few "bad apples."

There is of course much more to say on that topic, but I'll leave it there for now. If you haven't seen the movie, you should. It's a classic. If you have here's an interesting video analysis of the film that goes deeper into the themes I was talking about (you can start at 1:43 and not miss anything):

Here are some other YouTube videos I thought well worth watching:

More Coates:

Excerpt from a podcast conversation between Ezra Klein and Ta-Nehisi Coates from earlier this month (you can start at 1:58 and not miss anything):

PS. Obviously there has been a LOT, LOT, LOT going on lately. It honestly feels like too much to try to even sort through. Maybe at some point I'll give it a shot, we'll see. These are truly crazy times we're living in. Hope you're well.